Trials and Tribulations, and a case for Semi Ojeleye
With Kemba Walker's return, now is the time for Boston to revisit the starting lineup
With Tim Sheils (Twitter: @timsheilsnba)
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What’s On Tap?
Kemba Walker is officially back! Finally, at long last, fans got to see the star point guard play for the first time in a long time on Sunday against the New York Knicks. His return was naturally capped with a minutes restriction (20 min.) as he ramps up for game speed, and exited the game after a shot to the ribs from Nerlens Noel; fortunately, he was uninjured and had reached his limit on the night regardless.
By all accounts, Walker was rusty in terms of his shooting (3/13 from the field, 1/8 from range), but his movement was fast and free, as the savvy guard admitted himself:
“In the bubble, all I could think about was my knee. Every step I’d take, every move I’d make, I was thinking about it. Even when I wasn’t playing…Today, when I’m out there making the moves that I make and I don’t feel anything, it’s just joy.”
Kemba also notched four assists and three steals, but outside of Jaylen Brown’s 17 points on 6/15 shooting (3/8 from deep), the moral victories stop there. With the absence of Jayson Tatum, Boston ended up getting punked by the Knicks 105-75 in what was a historically-bad loss for the team.
It was the team’s worst shooting performance in 15 years, and tied the lowest scoring output by a Stevens-coached team. Survey says:
If anything, you can chalk it up to Boston not playing to their potential against a team that was desperate to snap a 5 game skid and came swinging at Boston, hungry for a win. Brad Stevens put it quite simply:
"I don't believe that (performance) is who this team is…..we had a clunker."
Jayson Tatum is still out after testing positive, but remains asymptomatic and it’s uncertain that he will play against the 76ers at all this week. Robert Williams is healthy and available for tonight, which is certainly a good thing for Boston’s rotations. Boston (8-4) will face Philadelphia (9-5) on the road twice this week, with the 2nd game coming on Friday before their Sunday matchup with Cleveland.
It will be on the team to get Kemba Walker up to speed with the roster, and as his minutes go up, we will start to get a clearer picture of just how well this team will play together.
A few games ago, an interesting trend began with the starting lineup, whether it be due to COVID absences or decision-based adjustments: the Celtics strayed away from the two-big lineup of Thompson and Theis. The last game the duo started together was on January 6th against the Miami Heat.
Since then, due to COVID protocols, a slew of absences have caused Boston to adjust on the fly and forced Brad Stevens to get creative with the remaining healthy players that were available, with even Tacko Fall garnering a good chunk of productive minutes. Thompson along with others were forced into quarantine leading into the Cs-Wizards game, and after a breakout of positive cases, Boston didn’t play ball for a week.
When the game against Orlando came up, both Thompson and Theis were healthy; however, Coach Stevens chose to start Thompson and have Theis operate off the bench. While it may sound like a simple adjustment, it marks the end of an impressive streak of starts by Daniel Theis.
Then comes the Knicks drubbing, but once again, the starting lineup featured Grant Williams as opposed to Daniel Theis.
With Kemba Walker back, the starters were Walker-Smart-Brown-Grant-Thompson against New York. On top of that, Jayson Tatum is slated to return soon, and Boston will suddenly be as close as possible to full strength, and capable of putting out their best starting lineup. The question is, can (and should) Boston start the double bigs? Should Marcus Smart be starting alongside Kemba Walker?
In their first outing together since Walker’s return, Smart shot a miserable 4/15 from the field, including 0/7 from range. In all fairness, he was far from the only Celtic who struggled, but the concern should be about usage rate and shot attempts.
Usage rate determines the percentage of a team’s plays that involved an individual player on the floor. The parameters that determine this number is based on plays that ended with a field goal, free throws, or turnovers; on average, a given NBA player has a usage rate of about 20%. In particular, the more shots a player takes, the higher his usage rate will be. For example: in his lone game since returning, Kemba Walker posted a usage rate of 44.2%, which is pretty high. Given the circumstances, it’s not surprising, as the team clearly went to Walker often in order to help him get back into a groove after such a long layover.
By comparison, out of the starters Tatum (29.4%) and Brown (28.6%) lead the pack in usage with Marcus Smart (17.8%) closing in at 3rd. While no one should expect Walker to have a rate that high again, it does beg the question how the team’s usage will change, and what players will fit best alongside the trio of Tatum, Brown and Walker, all of whom deserve a lion’s share of touches.
What it waters down to is this: can you ask Marcus Smart to lean back a bit more on his usage? Is it something that he will do consistently, or would he be better served as your 6th man? In addition, it’s become clearer that the two-big lineup can be used mainly on a need-to-need basis and shouldn’t be relied upon as a day-to-day starting unit.
If it isn’t evident while watching them on the court, one can simply look at their Net Rating. Net Rating is essentially a calculation of how good or bad a player/lineup is performing based on scoring and defense per 100 possessions. For example, if a player has a offensive rating of 110, it means for every 100 possessions, his team averaged 110 points per game while he was on the floor. If his defensive rating was 90, it reflects the same principle, except with points allowed. Subtract defensive rating from offensive rating, and voila! Net Rating.
Across 84 minutes of play, the lineup of Smart-Brown-Tatum-Theis-Thompson posted a net rating of -13.2, and most notably a def. rating of 119.3. The next closest lineup in terms of minutes has logged 25 minutes on the season with a net rating of 5.4 and a def. rating of 98.1. The lineup? Smart-Brown-Tatum-Ojeleye-Theis. It isn’t some kind of strange coincidence either, as Semi Ojeleye is having an unforeseen start to his season.
I, for one, must eat crow on this; I’m happy to admit I was wrong about Semi, especially since it means he’s playing out of his mind. Semi Ojeleye has come into this season and hit the ground running, and Boston has been all the better because of his development. Even after a tough team performance against New York, he is shooting 35.9% from range, and has consistently been making better decisions with the ball in his hands. He’s not looking like a deer in the headlights, and defensively he’s been very solid and keeping his man in front of him. On the season, he has a plus-minus rating of 50, 2nd on the Celtics and only trailing Payton Pritchard with 65.
Ojeleye has a net rating of 11.3 with an off. rating of 115.1, being a positive impact on the players around him and continuing to work hard on both sides of the ball. He has the respect of his peers due to his work ethic and ceaseless drive, and he's building upon the solid play he displayed in the bubble. Against Orlando, Semi had arguably the best game of his career, scoring 18 points on 6/10 shooting (3/6 from deep) with 6 rebounds and an assist. If Boston is looking for a lower-use, all-effort player that can play 3&D basketball, why not start Ojeleye full-time?
I’ve written previously about Jayson Tatum and how the overwhelming majority of his minutes last season came at the 4; it was a massive reason why I believed a two-big lineup wasn’t going to be used too much. Based how that lineup has worked and how much better all of Boston’s bigs look as the lone big on the floor, sliding Tatum back over to the 4 slot makes more and more sense by the day. Tack on the return of Walker, and you suddenly need to make a difficult decision with Marcus Smart.
Jaylen Brown has show he deserves to be earning more looks, and with the reintegration of Kemba into the offense, Boston needs to adjust accordingly to whittle out inefficient shots. A move to make Smart your defensive stalwart off the bench and starting Semi Ojeleye at the 3 not only helps your team start on the good foot, but rewards a player for his hard work, humility, and perseverance.
Personal Musings
Heyo!
I hope everybody is hanging in ok, especially this week as tensions seem to be coming to a head in the U.S with a cathartic inauguration finally arriving. Personally, I’m just diving into my writing and artwork more to try and get away from it all, and I’m actually working on a painting currently for a Celtics fan right now! I will be sure to post the final product as soon as it’s finished, but I’m trying my best to not rush it. I tend to be self-critical, so I want it to be as perfect as possible before I call it a done deal.
Hopefully, within the next week or so I’ll have some good news to share on the sports front. Lately, I’ve been trying to push myself further with my writing and development, and hopefully I will have another opportunity for growth and learning on the horizon. Until then, my best advice is keep pushing forward, folks. Cheers!