The Mythology of Marcus Smart
Taking a deeper look at trends and misconceptions surrounding the scrappy guard
With Tim Sheils (Twitter: @timsheilsnba)
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What’s On Tap?
After dropping three games in a row, Boston turned a corner and ripped off two convincing wins back-to-back against Cleveland and Chicago. After the return of Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum, the team will be operating at full strength for this first time this season. Amid the slew of absences, other players were forced to step up, one of which being Marcus Smart.
During their three game skid, Smart took a good deal of flak, whether it be due to his offensive struggles or calling out Joel Embiid’s flopping for free throws (who returned the same criticism). Throughout the losing streak, Smart struggled to find the bottom of the basket, shooting 41% (21 of 51) from the field and an atrocious 16.7% from deep (3/18). Talks began to spark about old habits, which is disappointing after Smart’s acknowledgement and pledge to work on his shot selection for this season.
Brian Robb of the Boston Sports Journal put out an article discussing a somewhat alarming trend pertaining to Smart’s number of shots and how it’s impacted Boston’s record. In an excerpt, Robb states:
The Celtics aren’t winning many games when Marcus Smart treats himself like a top scoring option.
One look at Smart’s scoring line from Friday night doesn’t leave much to complain about on the surface from his night. 20 points on 7-of-17 FG and a team-high 7 assists in 39 minutes. That’s a very good night for Marcus Smart and therein lies the problem.
40 percent shooting for Smart is above-average. (He’s a 37 percent career shooter). 40 percent shooting for a high volume scorer is not a good thing for any team and that’s what Smart has been far too much this season.
We first looked at Smart’s shot volume numbers during last postseason and the splits were striking even back then.
2019-20
Celtics when Smart takes 13 or more shots: 8-12 (2-4 in postseason)
Celtics when Smart takes fewer than 12 shots: 31-9
The early returns in 2020-21 are even worse when Smart becomes a focal point of the offense despite his offseason declarations about being pickier with his shot choices.
2020-21
Celtics when Smart takes 13 or more shots: 1-4
Celtics when Smart takes 12 shots or less: 6-2
To his credit, Robb goes on to say this isn’t entirely on Marcus, as Kemba Walker only recently returned and with Hayward’s departure and Tatum’s bout of COVID, there was a role on offense that needed to be shouldered by anyone who would step up.
While I do respect the point Robb is making, I believe that these win-loss records don’t paint the entirety of the picture. It’s not so simple and clear-cut, and while there can be the correlation made, it isn’t giving us all the facts. With that in mind, I did a little bit of digging into these games to get a better idea of the situation surrounding Smart.
As stated in the article from BSJ, Boston was 8-12 in the regular season last year when Smart took at least 13 shots. However, in 11 of those 12 losses, the Celtics were missing a starter, whether it be Hayward, Walker, Brown or Tatum. In the one loss (vs. Philly) where the team was at full strength, Marcus Smart had 24 points on 9/14 shooting (including 5/7 from deep). In terms of his shooting, Smart had the following stats in the remaining losses:
A common trend in these games is Marcus is taking at least six threes - compared to this season, where Boston is 3-4 when Smart takes at least six shots from range. Remember the game against the Suns last season? where Marcus Smart broke the franchise record for most 3s in a game by a player? That game is a perfect example of how shot selection can make or break you on any given night. During that historic game, Smart took 22 of his 25 attempts from deep, unfortunately, his insane scoring outburst went without reward, as Boston limped to a 123-119 loss, here’s the box score:
Let’s make something perfectly clear: Marcus Smart is an integral part of Boston’s championship aspirations and brings a level of play that cannot be replicated by anyone else on the roster. While I’ve had my complaints about the Oklahoma products decision-making, it’s impossible for me to ignore all of the good things he does for the team and his comrades in green.
The Celtics are at their best when Smart is doing all of those little things: making the right pass, picking pockets, hustling for loose balls and rebounds, and driving to the paint to either draw a foul or open up a look for a teammate on the perimeter. The biggest issue with his performance is when he tries to do too much of the heavy lifting if a star is out, and it often comes with mixed results. He is not by any means a bad shooter, but his shot selection can turn a good performance sour; with minor tweaks to his offensive game, Smart will become more efficient and an even more key part of the offense.
The number of shots Smart takes is the usual topic of conversation when critiquing his game, but it’s more about where these looks are coming from on the floor. Overall, Marcus is shooting 32.5% from three this season and 39.8% from the field; while these aren’t eye-popping numbers, they are just a smidge above his career averages. But a lot more can be learned by looking at Smart’s shot chart to get an idea of the breakdown.
While his 3 point shooting doesn’t look good on the percentages alone, he’s actually shooting really well from most spots behind the arc. The two spots that are tanking Smart’s percentages are his above the break and right wing/slot threes, as shown above. The 7th year guard is hitting shots from the left wing at an extremely solid clip, and his shooting from the corners is excellent. The most surprising of all is how effective Smart is in the midrange, shooting a collective 53.6% on those looks in addition to 66.7% at the top of the paint near the free throw line. The biggest issue is he’s too often settling for 3s instead of working for closer shots.
It’s easy to understand the tendency to chuck 3s in a league that has gradually gravitated more and more to shooting the deep ball, but there’s still success to be had with an effective midrange. Smart shooting 29.7% from above the break is frustrating at times, but it’s more frustrating when you look at his attempts; Smart has attempted 64 shots above the break while only 28 from the midrange. When he cuts down on his threes and works the ball inside more, his game flourishes. Just look at his shot plot from the last two games!
In the wins against Cleveland and Chicago, Marcus Smart shot a combined 9/14 from the field and 2/5 (40%) from the arc along with 5 rebounds, a whopping TWENTY assists, 7 steals, 2 blocks, and only 5 turnovers. Smart is a hyper-efficient scorer when he’s finding his looks organically within the offense and using his proficient playmaking to create for his teammates.
In an article for NBC Sports Boston, Chris Forsberg detailed that Smart’s playmaking has done wonders for his teammates, especially Jaylen Brown in particular. When discussing the victory in Cleveland, Forsberg points out some promising trends:
Five of Smart’s nine assists in the game went to Brown. Which is particularly notable because the Smart/Brown tandem now leads the NBA in both assists-to-field goals (38) and assists-to-points (90).
As Brown emerges as one of the NBA’s best scorers this season -- he’s now seventh in the league at 27.3 points per game -- it’s notable that Smart has assisted on 45 percent of Brown’s assisted field goals this season. The next most common assister for Brown this season is rookie Payton Pritchard at 10 field goals.
Marcus Smart is the team leader in assists, with 93 dimes on the season; the next closest player is Jaylen Brown with 55. In addition, he leads the Celtics in steals with 28. These are the kind of stats that reflect all of the good things Smart does on the floor that go underrated and get slept on amongst the gripes about his shot selection. Whether or not Brad Stevens decides to keep him starting, Marcus Smart will continue to do all of the little things that help Boston stay in the win column. It’s my belief that with the team at full strength and healthy, Smart’s efficiency will improve and his playmaking will prove crucial for the Celtics. All it will take is a bit of patience and trust.
Personal Musings
In personal news, I’m fortunate enough to have half of my work team back in office with me, as they’ve been furloughed for months at this point. Even with health protocols and safety measures instituted, it’s so nice to have part of my crew back. I suppose part of that is an attempt to establish some sense of normalcy.
Other than work and writing, I’ve been crushing a lot of TV in whatever free time I’ve got. My girlfriend and I have been watching a lot of Agents of SHIELD, plus WandaVision has been pretty cool and weird to watch (highly recommend). I’ve been keeping up with Attack on Titan and Black Clover, and sneaking in some Shippuden during breakfast before work (I'm skipping filler, don’t worry).
Most importantly of all, I feel like I’m starting to find that groove in my work, and that’s really what’s helping be get through these last few months. I appreciate you all who are giving me the chance to share that with you, and encourage your feedback as I try to create content to your liking. Cheers!