The Emergence of Bad, Bad Jaylen Brown and How it Affects Boston's Ceiling
Jaylen Brown is on a tear! If this keeps up, how does his development help Boston?
With Tim Sheils (Twitter: @timsheilsnba)
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Reading
· Celtics, Rockets Had ‘Courtesy Call’ on James Harden Trade: NBA Insider (Heavy.)
· Brad Stevens: Boston Celtics’ big lineup with Tristan Thompson, Daniel Theis on floor has been ‘too inconsistent’ (MassLive)
· Jaylen Brown Stakes Claim As Boston Celtics’ Leading Man (Forbes)
· New Years resolutions for a Celtics fan (CelticsBlog)
· Paul Westphal, Hall of Famer who won NBA title with Boston Celtics in 1974, dies at 70 (MassLive)
Audio and Video
· A thank you, from the Locked On Celtics podcast (Locked On Celtics)
· From the Rafters: Semi Ojeleye the Offensive God and Trolling Ben Simmons with KJ Doyle (Bannertown USA - Guy Boston Sports)
· Ep 7 Patriots Eulogy, and the Payton Pritchard led Celtics (The 617 Podcast)
What’s On Tap?
The Boston Celtics are sitting at 4-3, and while it’s not as good of an early record as some have hoped, the team is clearly missing the presence of Kemba Walker. The departure of Gordon Hayward coupled with the injured Romeo Langford has exposed the lack of scoring depth and wings on Boston’s roster, as currently constituted. It should have been more anticipated, as any team that loses their 3rd option (and then some) on offense should be expected to struggle a bit. A bright spot of this has been seeing other players coming in to pick up the slack, the most notable being Jaylen Brown.
Brown has entered this season like a man possessed, and has been a weathervane for the team, moving any way the wind blows on offense for the Celtics. Per Basketball Reference, Jaylen has been averaging career highs in scoring (28.0 PPG) and assists (3.1 apg) while shooting a scorching 59.8% from the field and 42.5% from deep. He’s currently 5th in scoring in the NBA, and it’s even crazier when you delve deeper into it.
The expectation for stars has become “hit threes or drive to the hoop and get to the line”; so, how is Jaylen Brown managing to score like this while not taking such a high volume of 3s or free throws? Brown isn’t a leader in three-point attempts (54th overall with 5.7 attempts/game) nor is he getting to the line at will (40th overall with 4.4 attempts/game).
It cannot be stressed how insane that is, when you consider scoring leader James Harden is ranked 3rd in 3P attempts/game (10.7) as well as 1st in free throw attempts/game (12). As of January 3rd, James Harden also hasn’t attempted a single shot in the midrange. Brown’s tendencies fly directly in the face of what works for other NBA scoring machines, and because of it, he’s been Boston’s most dependable option on offense early on.
A great deal of this shooting success can be tied directly into Brown’s improved midrange game, where he’s doing a majority of his damage with improvements to his handle and shot. Not only has this been his bread and butter, he’s been hyper-efficient from the midrange. Just look at his shot chart!
Brown has been absolutely lethal within the arc, shooting 78.6% from midrange, 45.8% in the paint and 73.2% in the restricted area. That’s not just elite for his career, but on a league-wide level. Of players with at least 17 shot attempts a game, Brown has shot a league best 64.3% on 2 point shots. He also has the highest FG% with 59.8%, and he’s 1st in effective FG% with 66.3% and 2nd in true shooting % with 67.3%. If you want further proof of how elite Jaylen Brown has played, James Harden has an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 64.8 and true shooting percentage (TS%) of 72.2, respectively. What makes these two stats different? Well, eFG accumulates the percentage of all shot attempts/makes, while TS incorporates free-throw attempts to boot.
The numbers prove what we’ve seen in the on-court product: Jaylen Brown has found another gear to his game, and with it, Boston’s ceiling at full health might have gotten a bit higher. His play has been breaking records this early on in the season, and he’s coming off a career-best 42 point outing against Memphis. Brown has scored 165 points through 6 games, the most points totaled by a Celtic since Larry Bird during 1989-1990 season.
One last thing I wanted to do is take a little trip down memory lane and visit some ghosts of trade rumors past. At one point, Boston was rumored to be interested in trading for Jimmy Butler, a trade that would most certainly have included the 3rd overall pick (and much more), the very same pick Boston used to select Jaylen Brown in the 2016 NBA Draft. Even after the draft, the rumors persisted. Oddly enough, one of Brown’s pro comparisons as a prospect was Jimmy Butler. Let’s compare their 5th NBA seasons so far, with Brown age 24 (6 games in) and Butler age 26.
I know it’s an early sample size, but it’s important to use as a frame of reference for Brown’s potential as well as measuring his success so far. The biggest spots for improvement for Brown right now is being more efficient on his free throws and his 3 point shots, but since he’s been so efficient on his other looks there’s still been a massive scoring output.
Another player I wanted to compare with Brown’s growth is probably a fairer comparison, even down to their shot selection and tendencies: Kawhi Leonard. The summer of his trade demand, Kawhi Leonard was mentioned as a potential target of the Boston Celtics before he ended up in Toronto for a one-year rental ending in championship confetti.
A lot of people dragged Danny Ainge for not dealing for Leonard, even though The Klaw made pretty clear he wanted to go to Los Angeles. Any deal for Leonard would have cost you at least Jaylen Brown, and Ainge made clear that wasn’t something he was willing to do for a flight risk, even if Kawhi is arguably a top 5 talent when healthy. Let’s compare Leonard and Brown, both in their 5th season at age 24.
The two are eerily similar, especially with the heavy usage of 2 point shots. Brown has a bit more in attempts, but his efficiency with those attempts has been astounding. It’s also worth noting that Leonard’s first All-Star berth came in his age 24 season, in addition to All-NBA 1st Team and his 2nd All-NBA Defense 1st Team nod. So far this season, let’s see how they compare:
The biggest gripe is Brown’s free throws, but if he can continue this stretch of play, there should be no reason he won’t get an All-Star nod; ultimately, it’ll water down to sustainability. If Jaylen Brown ends up developing into either of these players, Boston will be incredibly fortunate. Brown’s early play has indicated so far that he’s growing leaps and bounds right before our eyes, and having him alongside Jayson Tatum can only benefit the Celtics.
Personal Musings
Hey all!
I hope you all had a safe and happy New Year’s Eve. Even if it’s just a digit on the calendar, it feels good to put 2020 behind us as a means to start again fresh. The way I’ve looked at it, I can set some new goals for myself to try and tackle and strive for this year. I’ve started to write regularly, and it’s helping a lot as I gain more experience and find my voice in my work. My girlfriend got me some new painting supplies for Christmas, so I’m going to be making some new artwork really soon (I’ll be sure to share some work on here for you all too!).
Soon enough, my job will be back in full swing, and hopefully with it some sense of normalcy. The idea that people will be getting vaccinated soon should help. Working in the entertainment industry means a lot of people are rightly concerned about seeing shows, and I can’t even imagine how that’s going to go over.
In all honesty, I find solace in my writing and learning more about basketball. It’s an outlet that I can’t take for granted, and for anyone reading this, I thank you. If there’s anything I’ve learned, it’s that self-expression and finding those outlets that bring you joy and peace are so damn important. Because of that, I’m really going to be pushing content as much as possible and focusing on learning more behind the scenes. If I want to grow with my writing, I need to be willing to devote the time and effort necessary, and I wouldn’t have it any other way.
An excerpt from one of my favorite quotes by Thomas Paine sums it up: “the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly; ‘tis dearness only that gives everything its value.”
Stay safe out there folks, and keep working towards your goals.