Beg, Barter, Deal: Realistic Targets
Time to strike while the iron is hot! Looking at cost-effective options for the Celtics
With Tim Sheils (Twitter: @timsheilsnba)
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Audio and Video
· Robert Williams: Starter or Bench Big for Celtics? (The Garden Report - CLNS Media)
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· CelticsPod: Denver recap and Hawks preview w/ Andrew Kelly (CelticsPod on CelticsBlog)
What’s On Tap?
Ok, so bad news first: the Celtics are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and hovering just a game above .500. They put up a clunker against Washington 104-91, and Jayson Tatum didn’t look himself (and it seems his bout of COVID is having concerning effects on him still). Even with really good performances by Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker, the team folded against an opponent with a 7-17 record, and this was after getting handled by the Pistons only days before. If all it takes is an off night from one of the stars to lose by double digits to a bonafide lottery team, the Celtics aren’t built to win as currently constituted. Boston’s bounceback performance against Denver last night was a breath of fresh air, and here’s hoping it means they can string some wins together.
There is good news, too: Boston is in 4th place in the East and only 3.5 games back of 1st place. It’s an extremely tight race in the Eastern Conference, and it goes beyond just the top four seeds; for example, the Miami Heat are in 10th place with a record of 11-16, and they’re only 6.5 games back from top seeding. A ton of teams in the conference are underperforming or hitting a lot of the same snags as Boston, whether it be due to player injuries, tough schedules, or COVID exposures.
Sometimes, it’s easy to forget that Kemba Walker missed the first 11 games where Boston rocked an 8-3 record without their starting point guard, or that they were riding a five game win streak into that ugly loss against the middling Knicks. Walker has only played 12 games, Jayson Tatum missed 5 games due to COVID, and Jaylen Brown has fortunately only missed two despite his knee tendinitis.
I will say this: Celtics fans have every reason to be up in arms and demanding trades. Hell, even Keith Smith is calling out Danny Ainge and pushing for trades. Gordon Hayward was a 50/40/90 wing and Boston has yet to replace that kind of production. Regardless of the Pacers rumors, Gordon had freewill and oodles of cash pushing him to Charlotte; Ainge was fortunate to get the big TPE in return. Now, he’s got to put it to good use, as his main guys are getting worn down and he has to capitalize on the opportunity. As for the latest here’s what’s developed in the last week or so.
After snagging Jarrett Allen for almost nothing as an additional team in the James Harden trade, the Cavs have a young talent to be their franchise center for years to come. Alas, once more unto the trading block for Drummond, who has a cap hit of $28.75 Mil before hitting free agency in the offseason.
Another not-so-surprising development as the Pistons continue to bottom out is the moving of Blake Griffin. A trade is extremely unlikely, as Griffin carries a $38 Million cap hit for this season and he has a player option worth just under $39 Million that he most likely opts into barring him retiring or restructuring. Griffin is sadly a shadow of himself, and outside of him dogging it for the Pistons, there are major questions mark around his usefulness outside of a specialist role off the bench. My thoughts:
Andre Drummond/Blake Griffin
Ahahahahahahahaha…..no. I don’t think the Celtics should pursue either via trade, especially when it comes to the absurd idea of moving Kemba for Blake. Neither moves the needle enough for the financial burden, and the only way I even entertain the idea is if they are bought out. If Boston is for some reason in them, I’d bank on them playing the waiting game. Even then, it’d require them to clear roster spots.
There are other options that have become available that fit the window, but I’ll be addressing them a little further down the line.
George Hill
For a lot of teams looking to contend, George Hill makes all the sense in the world. He’s relatively affordable at $9.59 Million, and he’s partially guaranteed next year; at age 36, he may be looking towards veteran minimum money soon. Last season, he shot a career-best 46% from deep, compared to 38.6% from deep this year which is still very good. He’s shooting over 50% from the field in back to back seasons, and he’s an all-around guard who can give you vital rotation minutes while offering veteran leadership for your bench unit.
In all honesty, he was a target I had hoped Boston would pursue before the season started. As soon as the Jrue Holiday trade landed Hill in OKC, I figured a lot of contenders would be all over it and a team like the Thunder would love to add more capital to their war chest. Now, with a little over a month till the deadline, I expect that interest to grow. I would imagine either young talent and/or a first rounder and filler would get the conversation rolling for the Thunder, and if you’re Boston, that may be the price you pay for a stable bench guard to take up the mantle that Jeff Teague has floundered in. If you really wanna get crazy, old friend Al Horford’s contract fits into the big TPE and some asset flipping could make it possible to land both in Boston (kidding! kinda).
Kevin Huerter
So, first and foremost, I don’t think Huerter would get moved on his own, but as part of a larger trade package (I will get to his in a later post). He’s beginning to start at the two guard spot for the Atlanta Hawks, and he’s been absolutely crushing it. A career 38.4% shooter from deep on 5.3 attempts/game, “Red Velvet” is the ideal shooter to bring into a roster lacking off-ball shooters. At 6’7”, Huerter brings some offense with size to the wing spot and with it, more spacing. The idea of adding a dependable shooting option to either spot-start or bring in off the bench is exciting, and with his contract situation, you wouldn’t have to worry about his RFA contract until the offseason of 2022.
After a lot of spending this offseason to build a playoff team around their young core, Atlanta has had some bad luck. Injuries to Dunn, Hunter, and Bogdanovic combined with long-term contract talks over John Collins are compounded by poor play. An underwhelming 11-16 record leaves the Hawks teetering on the edge of play-in team status when the postseason rolls around, and with the Collins murmurs getting louder, there may be big changes on the horizon for Atlanta.
The big picture here for the Celtics is what is it going to cost long-term for Huerter? Does he get $14-16 Million a year on his next deal? That’s around the same ballpark as Davis Bertans, who’s the most recent and comparable sharpshooter to get a deal in free agency. If you’re Boston, it has to be something to consider, and looking ahead, you have to consider Marcus Smart’s contract and what his demands may be. Just shy of age 23, Huerter fits your timeline and a skill of need for your team moving forward, it’s just a matter of keeping an eye on the long-game too. I have a sneaking suspicion that Marcus Smart’s contract situation may dictate some of the trades Boston is looking at.
Thaddeus Young
In my mind, Thad Young is the trade equivalent of “pulling the cord” as a bailout option. Young would be a nice pickup if Boston fails to make a deal for a higher-end target like Harrison Barnes, Aaron Gordon or Nikola Vucevic with the big TPE, or if Danny Ainge decides to break up the TPE for multiple players. Don’t misunderstand me, as Thad Young is still having a great season and his addition would help Celtics immensely.
Young (32 going on 33) has operated solely as a bench big for Chicago and averaging just under 26 minutes a game, and at 6’8”, he’s a true-blue power forward, a role that he would fit nicely in for Boston. He’s shooting an excellent 59.7% from the field and sporting a career-best eFG% of 61% while providing a physical, gritty brand of basketball. While his shooting from deep is a bit disappointing at 25%, his attempts are down from 3.5 attempts/game to just 0.9/game this season, and last year he shot 35.6% on looks from beyond the arc. There would be hope that the veteran bigman would be able to come close to that percentage with some more looks, which wouldn’t be that crazy of a gamble.
The biggest knocks on his game besides his range is his free throw percentage, which is an abysmal 53.3%, which is the 2nd lowest FT% of his career. In summation, he’s not as much of a shooter as you would hope, but his efficiency on offense within the arc would be very helpful for a team needy of any kind of scoring options. With a cap hit of $13.54 Million this season and a partially guaranteed $14.19 Million next year, Boston could roll with Young this season and either flip him in a deal down the line or keep him. It would most likely take a pick or two to take him from the Bulls, and it would take a chunk of the TPE to absorb his contract without cobbling together deals. My only concerns would be if his three ball and free throws every get back to at least league average. A solid pickup, not my first option, but nevertheless a serviceable forward.
Personal Musings
Hiya folks!
Nothing too crazy to report on the personal side of things, I’ve been quite busy with my internship and learning a ton while working with CLNS. I’m really grateful to have the access that I do to resources, and I’m just doing my best to absorb by getting into a groove with tasks. Whether it’s editing, live-tweeting during games (find us at @CelticsCLNS tonight!), or clipping together pressers, I’m immersing myself in the work and I’m finding it really rewarding.
On Friday, I’ll be celebrating my six-year anniversary with my girlfriend, so I’m very much excited about that. I’ve got the day off from work, so we’ve got lots of things planned to enjoy our special day together. Life milestones like anniversaries don’t happen without growth, and I’m very happy and fortunate to have someone by my side to encourage me in my passions and push me to work through and overcome issues. I’m a better person because of it, and we’ve both grown so much together. Finding people in your life that support and encourage you is key to achieving goals, no matter how big or small. Always know who your people are, and be in their corner as much as they’re in yours; both of you benefit, and those bonds will stand the test of time. Hang in there, and stay safe!