Beg, Barter, Deal: Big Fish
The Celtics are proving they could use a big piece, so let's go through some names that'll help!
With Tim Sheils (Twitter: @timsheilsnba)
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Reading
· What is the trade value of each Boston Celtics player? (Yahoo! Sports)
· What Rival Executives Believe Celtics Are Targeting On NBA Trade Market (NESN)
· Kemba Walker leads Celtics to impressive win over the Clippers and is starting to look like his old self again (CBS Sports)
· 5 takeaways as Kemba Walker, Robert Williams help Celtics hold off Clippers (Boston.com)
· Here's how Brown, Tatum shut down Paul George in Celtics' win over Clippers (NBC Sports Boston)
Audio and Video
· Doris Burke on Celtics Struggles & "Captivating" Robert Williams | A-List Podcast (Video - CLNS Media)
· Boston Celtics win 3rd straight, Robert Williams earning more time (Locked On Celtics)
· Celtics vs Clippers Post Game Show (Celtics Post Game - CLNS Media)
· What is Wrong with Jayson Tatum and How to Fix the Celtics with Danny Hanley (From The Rafters - Bannertown USA - GuyBostonSports)
· CelticsPod: Initial thoughts from Clippers game (CelticsPod on CelticsBlog)
What’s On Tap?
With Boston sitting at .514 with a 18-17 record, the last week has been a rollercoaster of inconsistency. Blown leads, comebacks, and game winning shots (both for and against) have been an emotional whirlwind. Even with the record they have, Boston is hanging in at 4th place, and seeds 4-8 basically are all hovering within a game of .500. It’s not as good as anyone would have hoped, but that seems to be the status quo for teams in the Eastern Conference during the pandemic. With the All-Star Game on Sunday and a tough win against the Clippers last night, the Covid-struck Raptors stand in the way of Boston building some momentum as they head into the break. By the sounds of it, there are reinforcements coming internally for Boston sooner rather than later.
Marcus Smart has been sorely missed since his calf tear, especially when it comes to his defense and playmaking for his teammates. Romeo Langford has yet to play for the Celtics this season, as he’s been recovering from wrist surgery, and it will be interesting to see where he slots into Boston’s rotation and plans for this season (and beyond). The Celtics managed to string together three straight wins for the first time since early January, and at full health, we can hope they will continue to trend in the right direction. Even with Smart and Langford back in the fold, there still is some balance and scoring missing on the roster. Danny Ainge and Wyc Grousbeck have been pretty vocal and upfront about the expectations surrounding the team and potential moves during this season.
In my opinion….that’s an attempt to pump the brakes to the public eye. Partly to temper fan expectations, but more importantly to mask their plans/urgency to other teams. Picture it: if teams know that Boston is struggling, fans and writers alike are screaming for trades, and the Celtics F.O. comes out publicly saying they’re looking to make a trade with the TPE, what does that to Boston’s leverage? It evaporates, any team knowing that Boston feels pressured to make a deal this year will raise the asking price and bleed Boston dry of what assets they have left. While Boston doesn’t any longer have flashy lottery picks, the control of their next 7 first rounders and the young talent on the roster will allow them to be active at the trade deadline.
Boston has to give off the air of “We’re in no rush” in order to avoid getting raked over the coals in trade talks, and in all fairness concerning the big TPE, they do have that chance to use it in the offseason and that helps their leverage on paper. Can they afford to not make any trades at the deadline? I don’t believe they can stand pat, and ultimately, Danny Ainge can’t hesitate if it’s the right player with a higher price tag. There’s a multitude of players that fit your needs and can help the team immediately, and even more so if you’re not touching the core players on the roster. Without further ado: let’s go fishing!
Aaron Gordon
There are a couple reasons why Aaron Gordon fits the timeline for Boston. For one, at age 25, the bouncy forward would age alongside Tatum and Brown and his best playing days are ahead of him, as opposed to some of the other options on the market. Danny Ainge has been interested in him previously, specifically leading into the 2014 NBA Draft.
Gordon’s also under contract through next season, and for a cap hit of $18.14 Million this season, he can fit into part of the big TPE. As of now, Gordon has been out for a few weeks due to an ankle sprain, and should be returning to play soon.
Aaron Gordon would bring athleticism and explosiveness to Boston’s wing position, and ideally would slide in at the 4 spot for the Celtics. His presence would add another lob threat and rim runner capable of running in transition, and would give Boston a big outside of Theis to run at power forward consistently. Prior to his ankle sprain, Gordon was averaging a career-best 36.9% from beyond the arc, 7.2 rebounds/game and a career-best 4.2 assists/game. While he is not an elite scorer, Gordon would be the 4th option in Boston and would be able to build his play around the trio of Brown, Tatum and Walker.
In terms of potential trades, it could simply be a matter of throwing draft capital at Orlando’s rebuild project and absorbing Gordon into the TPE. The worst possible scenario is trading Marcus Smart and picks for Aaron Gordon, but with that would come the question of “are we committing to paying Aaron Gordon’s next contract?” and if the answer is no, can you in good conscience make that deal? The Magic are clearly looking to move some contracts, as Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic are also on the block, so hopefully it is just a matter of draft capital and you can figure out the contract situations in the future. Which helps us segway into our next target! *Drumrolls*
Nikola Vucevic
In so many ways, Nikola Vucevic makes perfect sense for Boston in terms of offensive fit. He’s the ideal center for Boston’s offense, as he’s shooting a scorching 41.8% from deep (career-best), 11.7 rebounds/game career-best 24.5 points/game. Vucevic would immediately boost Boston’s scoring, and would add more dependable scoring from beyond the arc as well as in the paint. The idea of pick n’ roll sets with Kemba and Vooch is tantalizing, and the idea of another big capable of shooting the ball consistently is very tempting.
The biggest issues I would have with a Vucevic trade are age and defensive ability. Adding a center who turns 31 in October and would take away minutes from Rob Williams doesn’t seem like a wise move, even if he’s gifted offensively. It doesn’t solve the issue of having another wing/forward to fill the void left by Hayward, and he would come in as the worst defensive center on the roster.
Out of all starting centers, Vucevic has a defensive rating of 113.8 (44th), which is worse than Tristan Thompson (111.9, 35th) and Daniel Theis (109.1, 22nd). He is high up the list for defensive rebounds, ranking 2nd out of starting bigs with 9.8 boards/game behind only Rudy Gobert. But that’s really where the good news ends on defense for Vooch, as he’s not a great defender in the paint (8th most points allowed by starting centers) and horrid in transition (7th in fast break points allowed by starting centers).
In terms of overall play, Vucevic is not an impact player, having a net rating of -8.7 and ranked 52nd out of all starting centers; by comparison, Theis is ranked 17th (4.2) and Thompson ranked 30th (0.0). Vooch is the perfect example of a guy who puts up elite offensive numbers that don’t contribute to wins. He’s been with the Magic for 10 years, the team has made the playoffs just three times in that span, all ending in a gentlemen’s sweep in the first round. While that isn’t entirely on Vucevic, the fact of the matter is he’s not making a big enough impact in terms of wins, and I’d be hard-pressed to give up a lot for him. I merely wanted to mention him since there are some that want him in green. Consider me skeptical.
Harrison Barnes
Harrison Barnes has been by far the most popular name on the market for Boston fans, and rightfully so, especially with the Kings struggling (They lost the game from above, by the way). Harrison Barnes is an established veteran with championship pedigree, and he’s having arguably the best season of his career shooting 49.3 FG/40.3 3P/81.8 FT from the field. Compared to starting forwards playing 35 or more minutes a game, Barnes is:
6th in FG%
7th in 3P%
9th in FT%
5th in OREB (1.0/game), 7th in DREB (5.2/game), 8th in total REB (6.2/game)
11th in AST (3.5/game)
The only Celtics forward better in some of these stats is Jayson Tatum. Barnes is having a career season, and he’s turning 29 in May. While he’s a bit older, he would fit the timeline better than a guy like Vucevic, fits the roster in terms of needs and skillset, and provides veteran leadership from a player who’s actually won something.
Barnes has played alongside multiple stars, especially looking back at his days with Golden State (pre-KD Era), so the adjustment of playing alongside Kemba, Brown and Tatum wouldn’t be too tall of a task. His presence would allow you to stagger your stars with another skilled wing capable of scoring on and off ball, and having him slotted in at the 4 spot for Boston’s closing lineups would be *chef’s kiss* delightful.
In mid-February, the Kings reportedly had “no interest” in moving on from Barnes, even with Boston calling about his availability. That was reported on February 12th, and now Sacramento sits at 13-21, 13th in the West and four wins back from being a play-in team. The Kings went 4-10 in the month of February, and will face the Lakers and Trail Blazers back-to-back before the All-Star Break. Even with the league having a lot off teams struggling due to COVID, things are not looking great for the Kings, and if those losses start to add up, it’s going to come time to think about selling off parts to help build a better roster around Fox and Haliburton.
The question comes down to asking price, as Boston could hypothetically outright absorb Barnes into the TPE and send draft capital to Sacramento. If the asking price is more than just picks, do you throw in a player like Aaron Nesmith or Romeo Langford along with a first round pick to Sacramento? That’s a legitimate possibility, especially if you are trying to capitalize on the assets you have and maximize on Kemba Walker’s contract.
Boston needs to be consistent if they want to be a legitimate contender, and that starts with picking a direction in terms of timeline. Players need to know their roles, and with such an inexperienced bench outside of a handful of veterans, there’s a lack of clarity about long-term vision. The starting lineup has turned into a revolving door at power forward, and while it’s great to rotate players in for matchup-specific lineups, it doesn’t always have that feeling to it.
Danny Ainge has held onto almost all of his first rounders in the past few years, and we have yet to see him dip into Boston’s future picks in trades. The Celtics have a lot of young talent, much of which needs playing time to get experience and polish to their game; if your goal is to win games and make deep playoff runs, how soluble is that situation? Can you give Nesmith and Langford big minutes if you are trying to compete in the East and maximize the time you have with a core of Walker, Tatum and Brown?
A lot of these questions are answered by adding Harrison Barnes. Solidifying your starting rotation, adding another scoring option to fill Hayward’s shoes, and alleviating some of the roster weaknesses riddling Boston after Gordon’s departure. If the cost is multiple first round picks or one of Nesmith/Langford or a mix of these assets, the Celtics shouldn’t hesitate to push the chips to the center of the table. I don’t believe they would stop there after just one deal, either.
Personal Musings
Howdy folks!
Sorry about the delay in my post from this past week. Between being busy with work and my internship compounded with the Celtics struggling, and I found it hard to find time and motivation to get writing. Outside of that, things have been ok for me in my personal life. I’ve got a new computer coming in the mail, so I’m pretty excited to be able to stream/record/edit/game on it! With the amount of files and editing I do on a regular basis now, I just need a bit more disc space and hardware capable of handling the newest drivers. If anyone has any recommendations for good PC games for multiplayer or exclusives, let me know.
On another note, a few good friends of mine helped me go through my resume and clean up things, adding in my writing and other sports-related experience as well as cleaning up the formatting. It’s a small thing to do that I recommend others do from time to time, but to have friends support and encourage you to do those kind of things means a lot. Beyond having buddies that you can put a couple drinks back with, it’s good to have friends who want you to grow as a professional, help you recognize your talent and abilities, and encourage you to throw your hat in a ring for opportunities that help you achieve your goals. Always encourage those you care about to be their best selves, you never know what that kind of support can do for a person and paying it forward will always be the right thing to do. Have a good rest of the week, and I hope you folks enjoy the All-Star Game on Sunday. Cheers!