With Tim Sheils (Twitter: @timsheilsnba)
Recommended Content
Reading
· Danny Ainge is looking for “shooting with size” with the Celtics trade exception (CelticsBlog)
· Celtics 2020 stashed guard Yam Madar wants out of his current team (CelticsWire)
· Kings forward Harrison Barnes has Boston buzzing as Celtics explore trade possibilities (Sacramento Bee)
· Kevin Garnett doubts his generation could play in today's NBA (CelticsWire)
· The Celtics are focusing too much on drawing fouls, and not enough on making shots (Boston.com)
Audio and Video
· Anything is Poddable: Guest Josh Gondelman (Anything is Poddable)
· Crossover episode with David Locke of Locked on Jazz (Locked On Celtics)
· Sifting through the Celtics subreddit with Chris Grenham (Gino Time)
· The Washburn Files EP6 - S1 (The Washburn Files)
· CelticsPod: Kickin' It w/ Chris Forsberg (CelticsPod on CelticsBlog)
What’s On Tap?
Based on the early adversity they’ve had to face so far this season between schedule, injuries, and COVID absences, the Celtics hanging in at 12-11 and 4th in the Eastern Conference is commendable. We still have yet to see this team at full strength, and it seems like every time there’s progress towards it, there’s some kind of setback, whether it be Smart’s injury, Kemba’s offensive struggles, or Jaylen Brown needing some maintenance days. I know we joke about the Hospital Celtics as a way to cope, but it seriously feels like Boston has a massive issue with strange and fluky injuries, regardless of player health history.
Last week, I set the goal of jumping into potential trade targets for Boston, because while Boston will do whatever they can to march on with the unit they have, I’m of the belief that there is an opportunity to seriously bolster their roster and make the jump into legitimate contender status. It doesn’t seem that belief is founded in fiction, as the rumor mill has started to pick up steam. In an article from The Ringer, Kevin O’Connor elaborated on the noise he’s heard so far for Boston:
Late Saturday evening, I received a flurry of texts from multiple executives around the league who said the Celtics were up to something. What they’re up to is unclear, but league sources have long said Boston is searching for upgrades to bolster its wing and big man position.
Tristan Thompson became trade eligible this weekend, and with a $9.3 million salary, he could be a perfect fit for a deal. So could Daniel Theis, with his expiring $5 million contract. The Celtics have young players like Romeo Langford and Aaron Nesmith, in addition to all of their future first-round draft picks, which could position them to make a bid for a big fish such as Bradley Beal if he were to become available, or a role player like P.J. Tucker or Thaddeus Young.
The Celtics are a good team, but they feel incomplete. With both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown performing at an All-NBA level, Danny Ainge should be aggressive in increasing his team’s Finals odds.
Preluding this, there was news from The Athletic’s Shams Charania about veteran sharpshooter JJ Redick’s availability and interested teams, which included Boston.
For what it’s worth, it also seems like Redick is not the only potential trade target the Pelicans are shopping.
To start off, I probably won’t go headfirst into Bradley Beal talks, I’ll be saving that for the tail end of these posts though to spare us all. I think this probably the best spot to dive into what I refer to as the “Dice Roll” tier of trade targets. There are multiple reasons for my use of the moniker, but usually this has to do with contract situation, impending free agency, capital needed for the deal, or some combination of these things.
JJ Redick
Ok, so let’s do a little throwback for comparison, another famous sharpshooter who was roughly the same age and acquired by a contender via trade a few years back:
At the time, Kyle Korver was 35 years old, shooting 40.9% from deep, and had a cap hit of $5.2 Million when acquired by the Cavs. The deal cost Cleveland Mike Dunleavy, Mo Williams and a protected 1st round pick (top 10 protected). Korver was only two years removed from an All-Star appearance, and his shooting abilities off the bench were coveted, which netted a first rounder and then some for his talents.
Outside of the general consensus about their skillsets, the two scenarios differ in the worst ways possible. Redick is 36, turning 37 in June and will be a free agent this summer. He has a cap hit of $13 Million, and he’s having a career-worst year shooting from the field at 35.3% and the worst 3 point shooting rate of his career since 2012-2013, hitting looks from deep at a 34% clip.
Redick this season is like the last season of Game of Thrones, resting on the laurels of the past and given praise on name alone as if to say “I know this last season was rough, but two seasons ago was a masterclass!”. Fans love household names when they go on the market, but if you’re not checking the expiration date, you may be surprised what’s gone sour by the end of the day. Is it a down season on a .500 Pelicans team, or natural regression due to age? Therein lies the question.
I’ll admit it, I sometimes slip into the pitfalls of believing a guy like Redick could be the difference for the bench unit, and I get the logic here for trying to make a move for him (or at least in theory). Redick’s value is in “buy low” territory, he could serve as a mentor for a guy like Aaron Nesmith, and you’re banking on JJ performing better on a team with better spacing and creators around him. But that’s a hell of a gamble if the asking price is draft capital in exchange for a guy who is in the twilight of his career.
For Boston, it would require breaking up their big TPE or cobbling together players to make up that $13 Million to match; that’s exactly where I draw the line. I like the idea of Redick as a buyout candidate, and that very well may be the case if Boston can put themselves in position to sign him. I just don’t like the idea of using the big TPE on a guy of that age with the contract situation he has.
Lonzo Ball
So this one interests me a lot more, especially if you are thinking of a player that fits the timeline of Tatum and Brown as well as thinking of a potential heir to Kemba. Outside of Payton Pritchard and Marcus Smart, there are not a lot of trustworthy ballhandlers behind Walker on the team; Jeff Teague has been a rollercoaster of sadness, and with Smart out and Pritchard just returning to play, life has been hard on Boston’s guard rotation. Kemba Walker is going through one of the worst shooting stretches of his career, so having another guard making his life easier would be a big win. That’s where Ball could come in.
Lonzo Ball is 23 years old, and he’s shooting a career-best 42.2% from the field (50.5% from 2P range) with 36.7% shooting from deep, and a career-best 53.3% effective FG%. On the season, Ball has dished 91 assists for New Orleans, which would be 2nd on the Celtics only to Marcus Smart. On top of that, he’s a very solid defender, boasting 30.2% of the Pelicans steals on the season.
In case anyone’s forgotten, he’s also an incredible passer, and his ability to drop pitch passes up court would do wonders for Boston’s transition game and early offense. Boston has struggled to produce in the fast break, and currently rank 19th in total scoring across all teams in the league. Inserting a gifted and creative passer like Ball could seriously give Boston a boost where it’s most needed.
His cap hit for this season hovers around $11 Million, and you would have his RFA rights. There’s upsides and downsides to that, as another team could swoop in and either force Boston to reach deep into the tax to retain him or let him walk this offseason. The upside would be to get his bird rights to keep him long term, and depending on what the future holds for Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart, having a flashy-passing guard with good defense is not a bad thing.
Smart’s currently under contract through the 2021-22 season with a cap hit of $14.34 Million next year, after which he will hit unrestricted free agency. I would imagine he will get paid upwards of that somewhere around $20 Million, but it’s a matter of Boston being able to come to terms with him and if they feel he’s worth that contract. You also have to factor in the long-term outlook of Kemba Walker and if he can break this stretch of gruesome play, and if not, there’s suddenly a lot of future uncertainty at point guard.
If Boston decides to pull the cord on their parachute with either Walker or Smart now, there could be a deal made without Boston touching their large TPE. If that isn’t the case, Boston would need to use a piece of their big TPE and what would most likely be at least two picks with a minimum of one first rounder. I would expect the way Boston conducts themselves on the trade mill this deadline to be indicative of where they stand, as they aren’t ones to hesitate in doing what must be done to help the team in the long run; just ask Isaiah Thomas.
Lauri Markkanen
This is another example of a young player who fits Boston’s needs that hits restricted free agency this offseason (one of few I am covering during these posts), and by all indications could be a player Boston could acquire via trade.
Markkanen is currently sidelined with an ankle sprain which will keep him out two to four weeks, which would keep him out at most until mid-March, right before the trade deadline. He’s one of multiple players (such as Larry Nance Jr. and Aaron Gordon) who are out for a similar amount of time, all of which in some way fit the mold of what Danny Ainge has voiced a desire to acquire: size and shooting.
The Chicago bigman is shooting career-best numbers across the board with 51.4% from the field, 39.6% from deep and an eFG% of 62.2% across 30 minutes a game. Part of the same draft class as Jayson Tatum and Lonzo Ball, Markkanen fits the timeline in a big way and turns 24 in May. Markkanen was also a player Boston had brought in for a workout pre-draft, and there was certainly a lot of buzz in terms of their interest in him.
I imagine part of the reason why Chicago didn’t sign him to a long-term deal is partly due to Wendell Carter Jr. and other youth at the 4/5 position, but more likely than not it’s concerns about Markkanen’s durability so far in his career. Since being drafted by the Bulls following the Jimmy Butler trade, Markkanen hasn’t played more than 68 games in a season, and for the last two seasons he’s hovered around 50 games. Whether it’s fair or not, there’s a track record early on, and until the Finnish forward can work on his conditioning, that could stand in front of him getting a big contract.
When you look at Boston’s current roster construction, Brad Stevens has his hands tied when it comes to the two big lineup. Boston is thin at the wing, and because of the emergence of Rob Williams in addition to the Tristan Thompson signing, Boston has the difficult task of creating Timelord minutes by starting Theis with Thompson. While it’s starting to trend in the right direction, it’s still not an ideal lineup for Brad Stevens to have to work with; Stevens is used to coaching a team mostly composed of guards and wings, and his system is predicated on guard play. Daniel Theis is having a very solid shooting season so far, but it’s in a limited capacity and he’s never going to be that dependable scoring presence at the 4 that you need.
Speaking of which, Theis will be hitting free agency this summer, and could easily command around $12-15 Million on the open market if it comes to it. With Rob Williams and Grant Williams needing minutes to flourish, Boston may be better suited to bring in a player who is more scoring-oriented and gives variety to a position that you don’t currently have. Enter Lauri Markkanen, who will hit restricted free agency in the summer and fits the timeline of Brown and Tatum. Because of his shooting ability and percentages on a higher volume than Theis, Markkanen could be slotted into the 4 spot with the starters and give another weapon to Stevens to tinker with on offense.
The big concerns with any trade for Lauri would be his injury history, that new contract in the offseason, and the capital needed to take that swing. If the asking price is Daniel Theis and a couple first rounders, I think you have to consider it heavily. A deal like that gives another young piece to add to the core while also helping diversify Boston’s bigs and clearing up the opportunity for Rob Williams to eventually claim the starting role. Tristan Thompson could be started in spot minutes but become the main center off the bench, Grant Williams could continue to be a Swiss Army knife, and Lauri Markkanen could become a key cog in Boston’s offense. Chicago would be getting a defensive-minded piece in Daniel Theis who could immediately come in at start while giving a mentor to Wendell Carter Jr.
What are your thoughts? Is there another player Boston worth the risk of rolling the dice on? Sound off in the comments if there’s another player you’d like me to cover! Next week, will be dubbed “Realistic Targets”, so I’ll promise to do my best to stay grounded.
Personal Musings
Welcome back folks!
The last week has been a bit crazy with the internship and picking up a lot of stuff through doing the work, but I’m really happy to be growing and getting more comfortable with my role. I’m not a fan of west coast trips, so I’m looking forward to some home games, to say the least. I’m doing my best to stay ahead of tasks, everything from stuff for work or something like my taxes or article research. I’m juggling a lot of stuff at once, but I'm starting to get a hang of everything and figuring out how much time I need to be dedicating to things and better managing my time. I’m keeping up with WandaVision (that last episode was willddddddd), and I’m gonna do my best to get some reading done away from the computer screen for the first time in a while. My biggest takeaway: don’t short-sell yourself or your capabilities, and allow yourself some space to learn things through hard work. Trust yourself, and do your best to not self-sabotage. You’re more capable than you know.